FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Yankees land superstar Juan Soto in blockbuster trade with Padres. Is 'Evil Empire' back?

NASHVILLE,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center Tenn. — The New York Yankees came to the winter meetings Sunday with a look of desperation, and a fear that their greatness was on the verge of being as outdated as the white pages.

They left town 72 hours later having dominated the winter meetings, and are back to being those old-school, powerful Yankees, for whom money is no object.

The Yankees completely restored their offense by pulling off two of the three major trades of the winter meetings, acquiring All-Star right fielder Juan Soto and two-time Gold Glove winner Trent Grisham on Wednesday from the San Diego Padres for pitchers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and catcher Kyle Higashioka.

It was an awfully steep price, but in the end, with 10 teams expressing interest and three finalists in the bidding, the Yankees simply decided they couldn’t afford to be without Soto if they had designs to win their first World Series championship since 2009.

“I mean, he’s a transformational bat,’’ Yankees GM Brian Cashman said before the trade. “He’s one of the best hitters in the game. He’s an impact (player), period.’’

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It was a heartbreaking trade for the Padres. GM A.J. Preller called Soto a future Hall of Famer several times during a late Wednesday press conference, and the Padres believed that when they acquired Soto from the Washington Nationals in August 2022, he would lead them to the promised land in three playoff races.

Instead, Soto helped them beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in a 2022 National League Division Series, but that was it. They went 82-80 last season and didn’t reach the postseason.

“I think for us we saw it as a potential for three pennant races with Juan in play, and even more,’’ Preller said, “but at the time we made the trade we (could) also pivot. That’s just part of having elite players, and premium-type talent. For us to get two pennant races of Juan Soto, get to the LCS, and see what season he had last year… being able to move him hopefully impacts us throughout the rest of the decade.

“It was just something that we decided we couldn’t pass up.’’

Well, ditto for the Yankees, who had the 25^th-ranked scoring offense in baseball last season.

The Yankees hope they've rectified that with the acquisitions of Soto and Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo in a matter of 16 hours.

“They were aggressive,’’ Preller said. “They clearly made it known they had a need. So when you have two teams that line up, and you have a team that's calling you consistently, you usually get a feel that this is something that has a chance to happen.’’

The Yankees could enter the season with a franchise-record payroll eclipsing $300 million.

And, oh, yeah, they’re not done yet.

The Yankees are still heavily pursuing Japanese star pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who may wind up costing at least $300 million in free agency.

“I think he’s going to be a really successful pitcher anywhere he pitches on the planet,” Cashman said. “He’s a tremendous opportunity for anybody. I’ll just leave it at that, but a very impressive and talented player.’’

Well, if their efforts in that pursuit are as fruitful as the way revamping their offense has gone, look for Yamamoto to be starting March 29 in Houston against the Astros in the second game of the season, behind Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole.

These Yankees may no longer be the "Evil Empire," as former Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino once called them, but they’re certainly showing similarities to their ancestors.

They now have a star-studded outfield of Aaron Judge in center field, Soto in left field, Verdugo in right, and Grisham as the best defensive fourth outfielder in baseball.

Soto didn’t dominate the National League in his 1½ seasons in San Diego the way he did with the Washington Nationals, but the three-time All-Star still hit .275 with 35 homers, 109 RBI, a league-leading 132 walks and posted a .930 OPS in 2023. He has a .946 OPS lifetime, third-highest among active players with at least 3,000 plate appearances behind Mike Trout and Judge.

Now, he could possibly obliterate those numbers, playing his home games at the greatest left-handed hitting paradise in baseball:

Yankee Stadium.

"The handful of times that Juan has played at Yankee Stadium in his career, (he) has enjoyed the experience,’’ his agent, Scott Boras, said. "I think anytime you have a 1.200 or 1.300 OPS anywhere, you enjoy it.

“He does have a number of ballparks he hits well in, but Yankee Stadium is one of them. If my memory serves me correctly, it would be safe to say that it's one of his favorite ballparks to hit.

“When you're Juan Soto, you kind of show up and every ballpark’s a favorite, but I know he hits well there.’’

Soto has played in just seven games at Yankee Stadium, but has a 1.219 OPS, hitting .261 with four homers and nine RBI in 23 at-bats, including a .393 on-base percentage and .826 slugging percentage.

While Soto’s defense has eroded in the outfield, and he's a below-average baserunner, it’s his offensive prowess that had the Yankees clamoring for him. They know he’ll earn a projected $33 million salary. They realize he could be a one-year rental, a free agent at the end of the season. Boras declined to say whether he would entertain extension talks, but considering Boras’ practice, it’s highly unlikely.

The Padres never offered an official contract extension, but spoke several times about the potential of a long-term deal, which went nowhere, despite Soto’s affinity for San Diego.

Soto rejected a 15-year, $440 million contract two years ago from the Nationals before being traded to the Padres, and now likely will be looking for a contract in excess of $500 million, perhaps in the same neighborhood as Shohei Ohtani.

Who knows, if he has a fabulous season, and the Yankees play deep into October, he may be worth every penny.

“He’s as good an offensive player as there is,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He’s a machine offensively, on base, power. He has accomplished a ton already at a young age. He’s durable. He’s been a central figure on a world championship team.”

While the Yankees went on their spending frenzy, the Padres were desperate to lower their payroll by about $60 million. They privately felt as if they couldn’t afford to let this opportunity pass. They could have waited, and perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays would have panicked if they don’t sign Ohtani, but the Padres couldn’t afford to take the risk.

The Padres also knew they needed pitching, and the Yankees had an abundance of it. The Padres already lost free agent Nick Martinez, and are not expected to bring back Cy Young winner Blake Snell or Seth Lugo. They also have no plans to retain free-agent closer Josh Hader.

King is the best pitcher in the trade, yielding a 1.88 ERA in his final eight starts, after being converted from a reliever to a starter late last season. He's a legitimate No. 3 starter. Thorpe is considered the Yankees’ fifth-best prospect, averaging 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings last season in Class AA and Class A, and projects to be a front-line starter. Brito went 9-7 with a 4.28 ERA with the Yankees last season and Vasquez, the Yankees’ 13^th-best prospect, was 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA. Higashioka is considered a stellar defensive backup catcher, who started 143 games the last two seasons.

“It’s a little bit exciting and disappointing,’’ Preller said of the Soto trade. “You’re talking about a future Hall of Famer. He was extremely impactful. Every at-bat, he would grind the at-bat, grind the pitch. I think all of us had a lot of respect for Juan coming into this. I told him that a few hours ago. He’s got a lot of fans in San Diego.

“Watching Juan Soto dominate the strike zone, it’s entertaining, and obviously, he’s going to do a lot of great things.’’

He just may be exactly what the Yankees need to be that Evil Empire of old.

“Obviously, we are always certainly trying to be a playoff contender that can challenge for a World Series,’’ Cashman said. “And so when you fall short of that, you have the place this year, a lot of anger and questions. … But that’s our standing goal, so we’re going to get back to it the best we can.”

Message delivered, loud and clear.

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Contributing: Gabe Lacques