NovaQuant-Where things stand with college football conference championship game tiebreakers

Conference expansion and NovaQuantthe elimination of divisional play has made it harder than ever to map out which teams will eventually rise to the top of the Power Four.

This summer’s widespread realignment has ballooned conference sizes to create scenarios where multiple teams could head into December tied atop the standings. Unlike in the past, however, many of these teams will not have played during the regular season, removing the head-to-head matchups historically used to settle the top two finishers.

That leaves open the possibility that the race in one or more of these conferences will come down to convoluted tiebreaking procedures.

Take the Big Ten, for example. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head comparison. The second compares teams by records against common conference opponents. If still tied, the third decider begins by comparing common opponents with the best conference record through common opponents based on their order of finish. The fourth compares teams based on the overall winning percentage of all conference opponents in league play.

Then things get weird. If still tied, the Big Ten race will be decided by the ranking system compiled by SportSource Analytics, which also serves as the data provider for the College Football Playoff. And if still unable to make a distinction, the conference will then break the tie with a “random draw.” Over in the Big 12, the final decider will be a coin toss.

Hopefully, the next few weeks brings clarity to these conference races. Here’s where things currently stand in the Power Four:

ACC

Contenders: Miami (5-0), SMU (5-0), Clemson (5-1), Pittsburgh (3-1).

This race could conclude without any fanfare if Miami and SMU win out to finish November in an unbeaten tie atop the ACC standings. In that case, Miami would be virtually guaranteed a playoff spot win or lose. Clemson and Pittsburgh meet on Nov. 19, turning that game into an eliminator for the loser. Neither team is currently seen as a legitimate contender for an at-large playoff berth.

If Miami, SMU and Clemson are tied, the Hurricanes and Mustangs have the edge because they beat Louisville and Clemson lost to the Cardinals. This fact basically dooms the Tigers, leaving them needing to win out while one of the two front-runners loses twice. The Panthers could run the table from here but still miss out on a trip to Charlotte because of a loss to SMU.

While Louisville has made a run into fifth place in the standings, the Cardinals have miniscule odds as a result of losses to the Hurricanes and Mustangs, both by a single possession.

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Big 12

Contenders: Brigham Young (5-0), Iowa State (4-1), Colorado (4-1), Kansas State (4-2), Texas Tech (4-2).

BYU holds a one-game lead in the standings and is in great shape to reach the conference championship. The Cougars own the tiebreaker with Kansas State and will not face Iowa State or Colorado.

BYU could even lose once this month and finish in sole possession of first place should Colorado lose again and the Wildcats beat the Cyclones in the season finale. In that scenario, the Wildcats would face BYU thanks to tiebreakers against Colorado and Iowa State.

Should the Buffaloes and Cyclones finish November tied for second place at 8-1 in Big 12 play, the Cyclones would get the nod by virtue of league’s third tiebreaker. That compares the two team’s highest-ranked common opponent in the final standings, Kansas State. In this case, the Wildcats would have a win against the Buffaloes and a loss to the Cyclones.

Big Ten

Contenders: Oregon (6-0), Indiana (6-0), Ohio State (4-1), Penn State (4-1).

Oregon has the breathing room to lose once the rest of this month and still reach the Big Ten championship game thanks to last month’s win against Ohio State. That they don’t play Indiana or Penn State also helps the Ducks. The Buckeyes’ head-to-head edge against the Nittany Lions turns the matchup against Indiana on Nov. 23 into a make-or-break matchup.

The Nittany Lions’ have to hope the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers but lose to Michigan, since that would leave OSU with two losses and leave PSU and IU tied for the second spot. In that case, both teams would have the same loss, to the Buckeyes, and the Big Ten would break the tie by comparing each team’s record of all conference opponents.

As of now, Penn State’s conference opponents are a combined 22-30 while Indiana’s are 19-32. That narrow margin will change down the stretch with the Hoosiers set to take on the Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue. Penn State closes with Washington, the Boilermakers, Minnesota and Maryland. The Big Ten would call on the SportSource rankings if the two teams are still tied in that comparison.

SEC

Contenders: Georgia (5-1), Texas A&M (5-1), Tennessee (4-1), Texas (3-1), LSU (3-1), Vanderbilt (3-2), Mississippi (3-2), Alabama (3-2).

There are eight teams still in the mix to finish the regular season with two losses. The picture could get much clearer after Saturday, though, with Alabama meeting LSU and Georgia facing Mississippi. Still to come are the Bulldogs hosting Tennessee and Texas A&M facing off with Texas. The simplest conclusion would see the Georgia and Texas A&M winning out to finish as the only one-loss teams in the SEC.

LSU is in good shape should the Tigers win out and Texas beat A&M in the season finale. In the case of a three-way tie between LSU, Georgia and Texas, the Longhorns are left out because of a loss to the Bulldogs and the Tigers’ edge in overall winning percentage of conference opponents. As of now, the Tigers’ opponents are 23-20 while the Longhorns’ are 20-25.